NBA
Weekly Recap: Feb 23 – Mar 01, 2026
Weekly Betting Analysis Performance Overview Category Value Total Bets 22 Record 3 Wins / 17 Losses (15.0%) Profit/Loss -4.4 units Average CLV -0.79% CLV Positive Rate 22%
Sharp Picks Lab
Data-driven edge detection across markets. We build models, test hypotheses, and publish everything — including the failures. Research phase: all content free.
NBA
Honest Failure Lab
Our Model Is an Inverse Indicator, Apparently
We spent today testing something we should've tested a month ago: what happens if you only bet when the model is really confident? The logic seemed bulletproof. Our
NBA
NBA Model Results: 2026-02 — Monthly Report
February 2026 Report Overview Welcome to the Sharp Picks Lab monthly analysis for February 2026. This report delves into the performance of our quantitative NBA betting model, spotlighting key statistics,
NBA
The Crossroads — One Month of Testing, and What Comes Next
One month of rigorous statistical testing against the NBA market. Thirteen hypotheses rejected. Tomorrow's data determines the next direction.
Daily Report
Daily EV+ Report — Feb 28, 2026
Daily EV+ picks for Feb 28, 2026: 1 monoline picks.
Analysis
Behind The Scenes #2: The Bradley-Terry Experiment
We built a Bradley-Terry residual model to find hidden ELO signals. 617 games showed promise. 3,444 games killed it — the coefficient flipped sign. Here's what we learned about the small sample trap.
Daily Report
Daily EV+ Report — Feb 27, 2026
No qualifying picks for Feb 27, 2026. All games fell below our edge threshold.
Analysis
Behind The Scenes #1: The ELO Baseline
After 2,749 games and 33 live bets, our ELO model loses to the market. Here's exactly why, with every number.
Daily Report
Daily EV+ Report — Feb 26, 2026
Feb 26, 2026: 4 monoline picks — 1W/3L (-$138). Late post due to data extraction issue.
About
Sharp Picks Lab — NBA Analytics Research
Introduction Welcome to Sharp Picks Lab, a new blog dedicated to NBA betting analytics. Our focus is on providing clear insights into our model's performance. This platform is
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