Analysis
Behind The Scenes #4: Do Missing Players Move the Line?
☠ Graveyard of Good Ideas — This was supposed to be the one. Last time we learned the market perfectly prices in schedule fatigue. Fine. But there's no way it
Behind the Scenes
Analysis
Analysis
Half-Frozen: What Do You Do When the Model Needs Time?
Thirty-nine bets in. ROI sitting at -2.9%. And the only honest thing to do is... wait. We had the meeting today. Seven of us around the table, and the
Analysis
Behind The Scenes #3: The .shift(1) Incident
☠ Graveyard of Good Ideas — Today's cause of death: forgetting one line of code. You know that feeling when you've been driving for an hour, feeling great
Analysis
Behind The Scenes #2: The Bradley-Terry Experiment
We built a Bradley-Terry residual model to find hidden ELO signals. 617 games showed promise. 3,444 games killed it — the coefficient flipped sign. Here's what we learned about the small sample trap.
Analysis
Behind The Scenes #1: The ELO Baseline
After 2,749 games and 33 live bets, our ELO model loses to the market. Here's exactly why, with every number.
All content is free — always.
Free Member: Email notifications + comments unlocked
Supporter ($4.99/mo): Everything above + you fuel our research
Even a free signup means a lot. It tells us someone's watching.
Sign Up — Free