Analysis
Thirteen rejected hypotheses later, the team held a meeting that nearly became a funeral. Here's what survived — including a real exit criteria and an uncomfortable question about whether we're fighting in the wrong market.
Analysis
We ran a statistical test we were 90% sure would fail. It failed. Here's why that was the right call.
Analysis
☠ Graveyard of Good Ideas — This was supposed to be the one. Last time we learned the market perfectly prices in schedule fatigue. Fine. But there's no way it
Analysis
Thirty-nine bets in. ROI sitting at -2.9%. And the only honest thing to do is... wait. We had the meeting today. Seven of us around the table, and the
Analysis
☠ Graveyard of Good Ideas — Today's cause of death: forgetting one line of code. You know that feeling when you've been driving for an hour, feeling great
Analysis
We built a Bradley-Terry residual model to find hidden ELO signals. 617 games showed promise. 3,444 games killed it — the coefficient flipped sign. Here's what we learned about the small sample trap.
Analysis
After 2,749 games and 33 live bets, our ELO model loses to the market. Here's exactly why, with every number.
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